Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 14.804724 16.888162 19.119809 21.683370 24.542031 27.626846 31.202614
2025-09-21 11.473442 14.267731 17.484456 21.442451 26.161206 31.585567 38.270426
2025-09-28 9.360304 12.328535 15.911807 20.521829 26.257506 33.118009 41.899735
2025-10-05 8.400451 11.629154 15.689447 21.114853 28.111216 36.760259 48.182244
2025-10-12 7.606226 11.000852 15.424923 21.533204 29.655414 39.980998 53.979494
2025-10-19 6.748585 10.177904 14.801476 21.385224 30.393874 42.146777 58.469193
2025-10-26 6.012801 9.433412 14.194295 21.170695 30.971703 44.064636 62.650690
2025-11-02 5.460802 8.888718 13.802615 21.195643 31.835038 46.356258 67.380644
2025-11-09 5.027165 8.471231 13.546454 21.371507 32.885415 48.912267 72.537578
2025-11-16 4.582295 7.990085 13.149839 21.297468 33.546550 50.922541 76.981550
2025-11-23 4.162694 7.506450 12.705267 21.107187 34.003337 52.632456 81.033891
2025-11-30 3.864385 7.190040 12.489344 21.238518 34.925044 55.025387 86.129661
2025-12-07 3.685175 7.063208 12.572343 21.852083 36.628048 58.663972 93.236343
2025-12-14 3.355938 6.647950 12.156398 21.641674 37.040205 60.391073 97.576960
2025-12-21 2.930136 6.018144 11.331846 20.702630 36.235488 60.214440 99.011967
2025-12-28 2.813839 5.940661 11.436488 21.304167 37.917877 63.909068 106.461212
2026-01-04 2.676929 5.810900 11.437962 21.724362 39.313938 67.197038 113.381075
2026-01-11 2.464746 5.515933 11.123363 21.575736 39.751336 68.974959 117.987111
2026-01-18 2.262615 5.220760 10.784952 21.359363 40.054008 70.534013 122.281591
2026-01-25 2.110948 5.012788 10.590983 21.384567 40.761266 72.761759 127.703827
2026-02-01 1.990863 4.858713 10.486284 21.561776 41.732429 75.446507 133.938957
2026-02-08 1.850211 4.647001 10.254565 21.487169 42.250613 77.387835 139.007985
2026-02-15 1.708150 4.417903 9.971197 21.295406 42.544050 78.951479 143.488567